Mother's Day—Records Fell! Plus Summer Perennials; Forecasting

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Friday, May 17, 2024

Chris Beytes Subscribe

Acres Online
COMING UP THIS WEEK:

Mother's Day Weekend
- Why hot and not so hot
- Comments from record-breakers
- And elsewhere
- Closing on a high note
Two June perennial events
Forecasting workshop
Finally ...

Mother’s Day weekend—records fell!

This is the oddest weekend report I’ve ever written.

The first 10 scores I received from you were 9, 9.5, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 9 and 10. Wow!

“This is going to be the best—or one of the best—Mother’s Day reports I’ve ever given!” I thought to myself as I began populating my spreadsheet with the data.

As I tallied your scores and read your accompanying notes, I only grew more confident.

“Out of the ball park” was how John Langendoen of Willowbrook Nurseries in Ontario scored it.

“It was COVID crazy all weekend long,” said Tracy Droessler of Stockmens Greenhouse in Minnesota.

“This was about as 10/10 as it gets! Absolutely bonkers all over the PNW,” wrote Tom Van Wingerden of Van Wingerden Greenhouses in Washington. Tom added, “Most are reporting record-breaking sales this past weekend.”

And Tom was right. I counted 18 respondents out of 134 who told me they’d set new sales records at their businesses (their comments are below). I was sure this Mother’s Day would finish in the top five of all time (well, since this survey began in 2012).

So imagine my dismay to find that the national average score was just 8.3 in the U.S. and 9.1 in Canada—high scores, to be sure, but compare that to last year: 9.1 and 9.8. Or 2018’s 8.8 and 9.5.

Here’s the map:



That’s based on 134 scores from 45 states and five provinces. You sent in 59 perfect 10s, or 44%.

Granted, not all of these previous weekends were Mother’s Day Weekends, just eight of them. When I look at only past Mother’s Day scores, the 12-year average is 8.2 in the U.S. and 8.4 in Canada—which we beat. We also beat Mother’s Day of the pandemic years of 2020 (8.2/8.9) and 2022 (7.7/7.8).

As for Canada? It was 9.8 in BC (five scores, including four 10s), 9.0 in Manitoba (just one score), 8.8 in Ontario (seven scores, including one 10) and 8.8 in Quebec (two scores). The lowest score from the country was an 8, so I can only assume it was pretty nice up there!

No word yet from the Yukon or Nunavut ...

Why was it a record-breaker for some and not so hot for others?

Don’t make me use the “W” word, but that was it in a nutshell. Regionally, the East scored just 5.6 out of 10 due to miserable weather for at least one of the two weekend days. New Jersey scored 4.5. Delaware and Maryland were both 4.0. Pennsylvania was worse. And that’s even on the strength of Virginia being considered “East” in my spreadsheet; they scored 9.4 with three perfect 10s.

New England was better, at 7.8, but still had some rain that dampened sales. The south was strong, at 8.3, but also had some rain and heat issues.

But the Pacific Northwest (9.8) made up for lost time. The Midwest (9.6) and West (9.6) had nothing but good reports. Same for the Plains states (9.3). The Mountains were strong for almost everybody, with just a 1 and a 6 dragging down the impressive 9s and 10s.

All that moaning aside, Mother’s Day 2024 was above the 12-year average of 8.1 in the U.S., 8.5 in Canada. And remember, nearly half of you (44%) deemed it perfect, with 18 of those (30%) reporting all-time-best weekends. Impressive!

So I guess for me to report a national “average” of “just” 8.3 and 9.1 means that, as an industry, we had one foot in boiling water and one foot in ice water. Together, they average a warm 122F.

Comments from the record-breakers

Usually when I share comments from score-senders, I mix it up, from 10 down to 2 or whatever. This time, I’m sharing stories from those who broke records because it’s proof that when conditions are right, our product is a powerful money-magnet! Not since the pandemic have I read such glowing reports—and it’s nice to know we don’t need a pandemic to be successful!

New Hampshire (10). “Broke record for both Mother's Day itself and for the three-day weekend total. Even considering the pandemic years."—Ara Lynn, Amazing Flower Farm

Minnesota (10). “Record weekend, even after adjusting for inflation. No previous weekend (in more than 30 years) has been this high. The mild spring and a potentially frost-free May could be the explanation for the early frenzy, but on the other hand, weekdays have been relatively quiet and overall we’re down about 5% from the same point last year. Maybe people are not ‘working from home’ quite as much this year.”—John Wickens, Olympic Trail Greenhouse

Maine (10). “Record sales for Mother’s Day Weekend.”—Cassie Lewis, York Woods Tree & Products

Wisconsin (10). “I may be out of plants by June if this pace keeps up. Possibly our best three-day stretch (Friday–Sunday) ever.”—Chris Williams, K&W Greenery

Illinois (15). “Beautiful weather and garden centers full of prime, beautiful product were waiting for our guests all weekend. Sales were easily up 30%-plus over last year and were actually even an increase above the crazy high 2020 numbers. Kudos to our team for keeping up and doing it all with a smile. Customer attitudes seem positive and they tell us they are coming back for more.”—Candi Scheuermann, Green View Companies

Minnesota (10). “Perfect weather. Biggest Saturday ever. Biggest Sunday ever.”—Derek Lynde Lynde Greenhouse

Washington (10 10 10). “Happy customers were out in the cloudless skies and enjoying 88F with carts full of color! Record day from all 30 years of mom’s days!”—Renae Bobbett, Beaver Bark

British Columbia (10). “Largest retail day that we have ever had to end our biggest week ever. Perfect weather!”—Tim Vaandrager, Vaandrager Nurseries

South Dakota (10++). “Unbelievable! The biggest days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) in the 54 years of being in business. Weather was perfect and most planting is now in full swing. It was an amazing weekend. And when you add to the mix the garden bar we have, a food truck and live music, it just doesn’t seem to get better than that. People spend hours enjoying their weekend here! It’s always good to hear 'I couldn’t find a parking spot,' but we sure are having a good time!”—Tim L. Sime, Jolly Lane Greenhouse

North Carolina (10+). “Biggest number of customers ever in a day (Saturday), but not the most dollars.”—Judy Mitchell, Mitchell’s Nursery & Greenhouse

Michigan (10). “Record-setting Sunday. Record-setting Friday, Saturday, Sunday.”—Karen Brohl, Brohl’s Flower Garden

South Dakota (10). “In my 15-year career, I do not remember a Friday-Saturday-Sunday Mother’s Day Weekend of absolutely perfect weather! All three days were sunshine, not too hot or too cold, little wind (this is rare in South Dakota) and nighttime lows were not threatening at all. Record-breaking sales, great customers and a smooth ride for our staff. We are gearing up for round two, as this weekend looks to be a repeat!”—Laura Kalfs, Landscape Garden Centers

Washington (10). “We had our best weekend ever in our nursery’s 86-year history. Perfect weather and enthusiastic gardeners made for a bang-up week leading up to Mother’s Day. Now we just have to finish picking up the pieces of the feeding frenzy on our plant displays and get things presentable for the rest of the month!”—David Vos, Vander Giessen Nursery

Washington (10). “Chris, I CANNOT score this on a scale of 1-10. We have used up our allotment of 10s. And this weekend was miles above all those 9s and 10s. The weather was perfect—80F plus a light breeze. The tables were full. The parking lot was bursting (we need more parking badly). And we did the biggest day we have ever done. Ever. Friday a record. Saturday a record. And Sunday a monsterous RECORD! I have never been so tired in my life.”—Kathy Wheaton, Kathy’s Corner

Indiana (10). “The weather was great, customers great, record weekend.”—Ed Clayton, Clayton Garden Center

Virginia (10+). “A record-breaking week/weekend! Very likely the peak of the season for us!”—Gary Garner III, Gary’s Garden Center

Wyoming (10). “We knew it was going to be big due to weather early in the week inhibiting sales. Pushed everyone to the weekend. Saturday a new sales record and a three-day record easily. Looks to continue through the end of May.”—Jeff Jones, Great Gardens

Congratulations to everyone who set sales records. The trick now is what do you do for an encore?

What happened where it wasn’t so good?

It’s worth looking at some of the lower scores, just to see what we might learn (although 7 is hardly a bad score!):

Ohio (7). “Based solely on sales totals, I would probably rank the weekend as a 5, as sales were about half of last year. Factoring in the weather, I am amazed that we were able to sell half of what we sold last year. It started raining around 10:00 in the morning and continued until after 1:00 p.m.. Then the sun tried to come out for a little bit before it started raining again, and then to finish the day off, we had three separate tornado warnings issued for our county. Despite the warnings, people kept shopping.”—Chuck Lehotsky, Chuck’s Greenhouses

Alabama (7). “Seem to be doing all the right things, but people aren’t coming out like they have in the past. Good weekend, but nothing like the last three years.”—John David Boone, Dothan Nurseries

Then there was this, the lone 1 of the week. Listen to this weather report from Colorado and maybe be glad you ply your trade elsewhere:

Colorado (1). “Hey Chris, I haven’t sent you a rating yet this season because we made a business decision to NOT ship any product to our Colorado market in April due to the erratic weather we have had the last three years. So our first shipping week was last week because, hey, you just have to have outdoor plants ready for Mother’s Day, right? Here was our weather last week: Monday and Tuesday: 50- to 60-mph winds all day long, with 90-mph gusts. Wednesday and Thursday: Freezing temps both nights with freeze warnings issued. Friday–Sunday: Rain all day and night with temps in the mid 40s until about 4:00 p.m. on Sunday afternoon when the sun finally came out and we hit a balmy 65F. Guess we should have waited one more week!”—Aaron Van Wingerden, Dutch Heritage Gardens

Closing on a positive note

I wanted to leave you with one more comment, a positive one that should inspire everyone:

Minnesota (10). “If you were to ask garden center owners and managers what their ‘perfect day of sales’ looks like, I would bet you would hear phrases such as, ‘Mother’s day Weekend;’ ‘Full sun, 75F, no wind;’ ‘Tons of available product in the peak of its beauty;’ ‘So many customers you run out of shopping carts.’ We had all of those things. If that doesn’t warrant a 10/10 score, nothing does. The season is not over, but it’s weekends like this that will really help make a season successful.”—Jay Holasek, Fred Holasek and Son Greenhouse

This weekend is Canada's three-day Monday-off holiday, Victoria Day. Can't wait to see what sort of plant sales that generates!

Two June perennial garden events

June is a great time to view perennials out in the gardens and there are two upcoming events in the Midwest definitely worth attending. And the real beauty is, they’re back to back and fairly close together, so you can attend one one day and one the next!

Tuesday, June 18 is Walters Gardens Perennial Expo in Zeeland, Michigan. It runs 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

During this one-day free perennial event, Walters Gardens opens their doors to the industry so you can learn who they are and what they do, see their newest introductions, and stroll through their beautiful perennial gardens.



The Perennial Expo is loaded with educational opportunities, including New Plant Introductions, Practical IPM, Perennials for Shoulder Season Programs, Tips and Tolls to Engage with New and Existing Customers, Greenhouse Automation, and more.

Plus, there will be numerous tour opportunities to see the display gardens, bareroot field production and even complimentary lunch in the gardens. They just simply ask you to RSVP for the event. Learn more and RSVP HERE.

Wednesday, June 19 is Darwin Perennials Day 2024 at The Gardens at Ball. Registration is free, with full access to extensive perennial gardens of more than 400 varieties, plus dozens of industry vendors ready to connect and answer your questions. The event runs 8:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. and includes lunch.

What can you expect?

- 2025 New Variety Showcase from the world’s best breeders
- Culture and production tips from perennial experts
- Guided garden walks and a new Darwin Colombia tour experience
- A FREE PLANT for each attendee

Visit THEIR WEBSITE to register, see the full event schedule, and get travel and lodging recommendations.

Forecasting workshop at Cultivate’24

With spring waning, you might want to take some time this summer to improve your business forecasting abilities. I mean, you can use the back of a napkin or a crocus sack to do your cipherin’, but in this day and age, being more sophisticated and purposeful with your planning is important, especially given what happened with the global supply chain during the pandemic.

To that end, AmericanHort is hosting a special greenhouse and nursery forecasting workshop the Saturday of Cultivate’24, July 13. It will be run by Ken Lane of Hathaway & Lane Direct, a data-driven consultancy supporting businesses with forecasting, marketing and strategic planning support; and John Beauford, President/CTO of Advanced Grower Solutions, serving growers with software, data and analytics and consulting solutions.

In this full-day (10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.) hands-on workshop, you'll learn the fundamentals of forecasting for a greenhouse/nursery business, starting with an overview of what forecasting is, how it’s used, and various tools and methodologies to help build a better forecast. You'll also see real-life examples from real businesses, learn what data you need and how to consider the impact of other factors in producing the final “number” to plan for.

You'll also get an overview of the key fundamentals of Excel (one tool you can use) to help you better organize, manipulate, calculate and build the data you need for your forecasts (so bring your Excel-equipped laptop!).

The cost is just $299, with lunch included.

CLICK HERE to learn more and to register.

Finally …

There’s just one weekend left until Memorial Day, the unofficial-official end of spring. Golly, just one weekend between our two big holidays … except don’t we sometimes have two weekends between them, essentially making spring a week longer? Yes, yes we do. Two out of every seven years … but not quite, as I learned studying the calendar in my iPhone.

We last had two weekends between Mother’s Day and Memorial Day in both 2021 and 2022. Nice! So I assumed in five years we’d get that same pattern, right? Wrong—2027 does indeed have two weekends between the two holidays, but 2028 does not. You have to go out to 2032 and 2033 to find that pattern. Then again in 2038 and 2039 we get back-to-back two-weekend periods. Then 2044 is a stand-alone. Then 2049 and 2050 have two weekends, then 2055 stands alone …

I took this all the way out to 2095 to see that the pattern of years with two weekends between Mother’s Day and Memorial Day is this: one year/two years/two years/one year/two years. Then it repeats: one year/two years/two years/one year/two years.

These are the upcoming years with extra-long springs:

2027                2066
2032                2067
2033                2072
2038                2077
2039                2078
2044                2083
2049                2088
2050                2089
2055                2094
2060                2095
2061                2100

Armed with this intel, NOW you are prepared to do some effective forecasting!

Feel free to email me at beytes@growertalks.com if you have ideas, comments or questions.

See you next time!

Chris sig

Chris Beytes
Editor-in-Chief
GrowerTalks and Green Profit


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